The price spread between futures contracts narrowed significantly on the last trading day, and Shanghai spot copper moved downwards after a higher opening [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Jul 15, 2025 14:23

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[SMM spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, after officially entering the SHFE copper 2508 contract, it is expected that suppliers will still start quoting at a spot premium of 150 yuan/mt. However, due to the relatively low cost of holding inventory before the contract rollover and the recent weak downstream consumption sentiment, it is expected that the spot premiums of SHFE copper will weaken rapidly.

SMM News on July 15:

Today, SMM reported that spot #1 copper cathode was quoted at a premium of 90-180 yuan/mt against the front-month 2507 contract, with an average premium of 135 yuan/mt, up 155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 77,770 to 78,220 yuan/mt. As today was the last trading day for the SHFE copper 2507 contract, SMM consistently quoted prices against the front-month contract in accordance with its methodology. The price spread between futures contracts for different months fluctuated between a Contango of 40 yuan/mt and a BACK of 20 yuan/mt. The SHFE copper 2507 contract fluctuated between 78,020 and 78,060 yuan/mt in the morning session before sliding to a low of 77,650 yuan/mt and then rebounding to around 77,800 yuan/mt near the morning close.

In the market today, there was almost no quoting for the SHFE copper 2508 contract. Suppliers initially quoted a premium of 180 yuan/mt for mainstream standard-quality copper, which later fell to 100-130 yuan/mt. High-quality copper, such as Jinchuan (plate), was quoted at a premium of 150-180 yuan/mt, with transactions occurring at a premium of 150 yuan/mt. SX-EW copper, such as that from Myanmar, was circulating, but suppliers were fatigued from quoting prices on the last trading day, resulting in few transactions.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, after officially entering the SHFE copper 2508 contract period, it is expected that suppliers will still start quoting at a premium of 150 yuan/mt. However, due to the lower holding costs before the contract rollover and the recent weak downstream consumption sentiment, it is anticipated that spot premiums for SHFE copper will weaken rapidly.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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